March Madness Trends: 3 to Trust and 3 To Avoid

Most seed-versus-seed outcomes must be taken with a grain of salt (and a shot of tequila followed by a lime wedge), however there's no rejecting the No. 12 versus No. 5 March Madness pattern. Despite the randomness, this pairing continues to produce earnings for those picking the No. 12 seed - at least versus the spread.


Since 2012, No. 5 seeds are 27-21 SU versus No. 12 seeds and 20-27-1 ATS in those opening-round matches. Over the past 5 Big Dances (remembering we didn't have one in 2020), No. 5 seeds are 12-8 SU and 9-11 ATS, going 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in the 2024 tournament Round of 64.


Don't just blindly bank on No. 12 seeds over No. 5's but treat this trend with respect - like managing a cobra.


Three patterns to fade


There's a surplus of shallow March Madness betting patterns out there that you need to never ever blindly track when placing your bets or building your bracket. Here's the suggestion of the iceberg.


Conference trends


Certain conferences will have stronger historical ATS records in the NCAA Tournament, but the teams, opponents, gamers and spreads all differ when building out this bull crap. The total strength of conferences sways every year, so do not go chasing after the SEC teams or fading ACC schools based entirely on those conferences' counts against the spread.


Seed vs. Seed trends


We have actually singled out the No. 5-versus-No. 12 trend, which damaged a great deal of "smart" brackets with all 4 No. 5 seeds advancing in 2023. Bettors need to tread lightly with that info and more so with other patterns around seed-versus-seed. The level of parity in college basketball appears to be widening by the season, so don't base a bet solely on the Selection Committee's seeding.